Bracing for impact

CLIMATE change is here to stay. As Pakistan confronts serious structural imbalances, recurring natural calamities — from massive floods and prolonged droughts to intense heat stress and food insecurity — are posing an existential threat to the country’s economic future. That the IMF has advised the authorities to spend at least 1pc of GDP annually on climate-resilient infrastructure highlights the expanding gap between what is being done and what needs to be done to combat this growing threat across Pakistan. Rising water shortages, desertification, rapid glacial melt, and unseasonal and intense monsoons accompanied by frequent large-scale flooding are all signs that it is necessary to take quick action. The need to improve climate resilience and adaptation in order to cope with and “prepare for recurring extreme weather events, and sustain economic growth, and reverse inequalities” has never been more urgent.
It has often been pointed out that Pakistan is among the top 10 nations in the world most affected by the changing climate. As such, it faces a significantly higher rate of warming than the global average, and increasing and greater climate variability. In emphasising the need for “proactive investment in climate-adaptive infrastructure”, as it could help “reduce the negative growth impact of a natural disaster shock by one-third while ensuring a quicker return of Pakistan to its previous GDP level by increasing its climate resilience and buffering climate shocks”, the new IMF policy note, in fact, paints a grim picture of the difficult task ahead. The reality is that an ever-widening resource crunch and regular economic crises have constrained the ability of the country to invest in climate resilience and adaptation. The world is not helping either. For example, only a fraction of what was committed to aiding Pakistan in the task of rebuilding infrastructure destroyed by the floods of 2022 and rehabilitating millions of affected people, has materialised. Nonetheless, it would be unfair to lay the entire blame for our poor climate-related investments at the door of others. Our own policymakers have failed to grasp the situation and plan accordingly. Take the country’s energy policy. Rather than encouraging investments in cleaner renewable solar and wind power, we remain focused on dirty coal, without realising its future costs to the environment, human health and livelihoods. Investments alone will not work without correcting our development policy course.
Published in Dawn, October 18th, 2024